Yes, injuries and such carry over from the regular season, and some of the trends we’ve been provided with will most certainly provide us with useful hints as to how things will wind up shaking out.
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But ultimately, it’s vital to keep in mind that we’re dealing with — get your drink ready — small sample sizes in each of these playoff series. It’s why we constantly see lower-ranked teams dispose of teams that were considered favorites coming in, and it’s why forecasting each matchup can be a fool’s errand.
That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it, though, because predicting things can be a combination of good fun and a useful exercise. So with that being said let’s run through each opening round series out East, in order of how much we should care (assuming all things being equal, as an observer that isn’t predisposed to lean in any one direction).
1. Boston Bruins vs. Detroit Red Wings
For all intents and purposes, this series between two Original Six teams is set up to be the most aesthetically pleasing of the bunch, both in terms of the get-ups the two will wear on the ice, and the action that’ll actually unfold once they’re out there.
All things considered, what the Red Wings have already managed to accomplish this season is notable in and of itself. Drew Miller and Kyle Quincey were the only two players on the team to suit up for all 82 regular-season games, and key cogs such as Pavel Datsyuk (37), Henrik Zetterberg (37), Johan Franzen (28), Jonathan Ericsson (34), Danny DeKeyser (17), Darren Helm (40) and Stephen Weiss (56) all missed significant periods of time.
Despite those obstacles that were thrown their way, they managed to extend their remarkable playoff streak to 23 years running. While Mike Babcock’s presence behind the bench certainly needs to be recognized, it was all made possible thanks to general manager Ken Holland (and his unconvential “Gutalytics” approach?). The Red Wings have long been a model franchise, both due to the class and grace with which they handle their business, but also the manner in which they groom their young assets. Players like Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Tomas Jurco, and Riley Sheahan all paid integral roles on a team that in no way resembled your daddy’s Wings.
Fittingly, their opponent in this opening round, the Boston Bruins, have themselves seemingly captured a magic recipe for themselves that other executives point to as the route they'd like to take. Unfortunately, they may tend to miss the plot when trying to pinpoint the reasons for Boston's success.
The Bruins are considered to be a big, bad bunch that’ll punish you physically until you’ve lost your will to compete. While that’s technically true, there are other teams that’ve tried to replicate that style without enjoying the same rewards. Just look at Vancouver Canucks GM Mike Gillis, who took a defeat at the hands of the Bruins personally, and completely changed his philosophy and idea of what it took to win, only to receive his walking papers less than three years later.
And that’s because the Bruins have something very few others do: a fantastic combination of hockey players that most importantly make sense in the team's grand scheme. The Bruins are an exquisitely well-oiled machine, and they've fired on all cylinders this season en route to their conquest of the Presidents’ Trophy.
While the likes of Milan Lucic, Gregory Campbell, and Shawn Thornton get a large amount of attention for making the team a difficult one to play against physically, it’s actually the elite talent of Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and Zdeno Chara that’s driving the bus. Supplement that upper echelon talent with an elite goaltender, and a third line that features the effective combination of Loui Eriksson and Carl Soderberg, and it’s not difficult to see why they made quick work of a lot of teams this season.
They were the class of the East all year long, finishing the year as the conference's only team in the league's top four fenwick close teams. While the Detroit Red Wings appear to have a more sustainable and achievable franchise model moving forward, the Boston Bruins will continue to steer people in the wrong direction with another lengthy playoff run.
Pick: Bruins in 5 pretty hockey games.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
While the preceding series is shaping up to the one that’ll be the easiest on the eyes, I’d peg this particular matchup as the most fascinating one to dissect analytically.
On the one hand, you have the Pittsburgh Penguins, a postseason regular that has unquestionably the greatest hockey player in the world in Sidney Crosby, and 2012 Hart Trophy winner Evgeni Malkin. Very few squads are really able to match that kind of firepower, particularly when they manage to get on the power play.
But hockey is a team game with a lot of moving parts, and if you have flaws throughout your depth chart they’ll get exposed. That’s what happened to the Pittsburgh Penguins this season, as a bunch of injuries didn’t do their initially questionable depth any favors:
(via Travis Yost)
What you’ll notice is that, while their underlying numbers have been suspect for the majority of the season, they nosedived in the final 5-6 weeks. They were a worse possession team than even the Colorado Avalanche, a team that has taken significant flack for their woes on that front. When Crosby and Malkin aren’t on the ice — which, even if their minutes see an uptick given the circumstances, will still be for a couple of minutes in each period — the Penguins are left incredibly susceptible to the advances of the opposition.
The real question, though, is whether the Blue Jackets are the right team to make them pay for this in a seven-game series. The answer: I think so. They’ve got an attack that’s led by Ryan Johansen — the best player in the game that most people haven’t heard of — who broke out for 33 goals this season, despite playing some legitimately tough minutes all year. If anyone deserves to get some extra recognition on a national stage like the playoffs, it’s him.
Now, obviously his star power still pales in comparison to the Penguins', but it’s the talent down the line, that comes in neverending waves, where the Blue Jackets have a leg up on their first-round opponent. The ability to send out Johansen, Brandon Dubinsky, and Artem Anisimov down the middle without a noticeable drop-off is Columbus’ calling card. They’re a deep, difficult team to play against, which makes them Pittsburgh’s antithesis in a lot of ways. As does their situation between the pipes, which doesn’t have a lot of baggage or drama associated with it.
There’s a reason why this series gave me a lot of consternation, though. It’s not that simple. While my head tells me that the Columbus Blue Jackets are a better hockey team, it’s always difficult to bet against Sidney Crosby. After watching the New York Islanders give the Penguins all sorts of fits in last year’s opening round, I was fairly emphatic in picking the Ottawa Senators to upset them and wound up looking silly after all was said and done. And yet despite that experience ...
Pick: Blue Jackets in 7, because it would be really cool to see the Blue Jackets reward the year-long possession data, and topple a mainstream team like the Penguins.
3. New York Rangers vs. Philadelphia Flyers
The beautiful thing about the playoffs is the occasion where two teams with completely different styles of plays, and strengths and weaknesses, square off against each other. That’s exactly what we’ve got on our hands in this series, in which the Rangers and Flyers somehow meet in the postseason for the first time since 1997 despite being division rivals for all of these years.
I’ve been beating the New York Rangers’ drum for some time now, as a team with borderline elite possession numbers that was laying in the weeds due to a low shooting percentage that would eventually positively regress. If they continue to play at that high a level, the goals will, more often than not, follow.
The Philadelphia Flyers, meanwhile, got to this point in a completely different manner. They were just a 48.2% Fenwick close % team (23rd overall) that masked a lot of its problems at 5-on-5 by with the 10th best shooting percentage in the league. But that’s not where they made their bones; it was the power play, in which they finished sixth in goals/60 and third in total tallies.
The problem with that in this series: the Rangers took the second fewest penalties in the NHL. If the trends from the regular season carry over to the postseason, the Flyers will be hard-pressed to keep up with their opponent at 5-on-5. And unfortunately for them, it’s not like their goaltender is a likely candidate to steal the series.
Pick: Rangers in 5, which is somehow less than the number of years Andrew MacDonald is signed on for with the Flyers.
4. Montreal Canadiens v. Tampa Bay Lightning
This is where I rant about Marc Bergevin, who is a prime example of a decision maker that overreacted to one unfortunate result stemming. Last season, the Canadiens were one of the league’s most positive surprises, as they came out of nowhere to finish fourth in the league at season’s end. Thanks to young players like PK Subban, Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller, and Brendan Gallagher they were able to turn some heads.
Unfortunately for them, they ran into a pretty good Ottawa Senators squad that made quick work of them in the opening round. Instead of taking a step back to view the year as a whole, and realizing that the cup of coffee in the playoffs was just gravy on top of a wildly successful season, Bergevin scanned his team, gave in to the silly notion that they were too soft and small to translate their regular season success to the playoffs (like it’s some sort of mythical beast). He signed Douglas Murray, he traded for Dale Weise, and he threw a bunch of money at Daniel Briere presumably because he has a good postseason track record.
Here’s what he got for his efforts:
(via Robert JFTC)
A team that not only had its growth stunted, but markedly took a step back. No, this can’t be blamed on Subban. There is something far more deep rooted and rotten in the province of Quebec.
I really like the Tampa Bay Lightning a lot. Their far superior possession numbers, intriguing depth both up front and on the blueline, and Steven Stamkos, help mitigate my concerns about the disparity in net between Carey Price and Anders Lindback to start the series.
Pick: Lightning in 6.
Dimitri Filipovic is the managing editor of Canucks Army, a Sporting News partner. Follow him on Twitter: @DimFilipovic.
