So the dartboard is back. Here's the Western Conference playoff preview.
MORE: Eastern Conference predictions | NHL playoff schedule, TV info
No. 1 Anaheim Ducks vs. No. 4 Dallas Stars (Pacific Division)
SN’s pick: Stars in seven.
Why it can happen: Because it already kind of did; Anaheim, as the No. 2 seed last season, lost to the Detroit Red Wings, a team that had generated more shot attempts at 5-on-5 throughout the regular season but hadn’t won as many games. One way of measuring how much luck a team has enjoyed is the stat known as PDO: it’s the simple addition of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage at even strength. The number, when expressed in four digits, tends to even out at 1,000 over the course of time. Anything above that usually means that a team has tended to have the bounces go their way. When the score is close (within a goal in the second or third period or tied anytime), the Ducks’ PDO is 1034 (as always, via Extra Skater). That’s the highest in the league, and a reasonably thing to bet against. Plus, Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are awesome.
Why it may not: Some teams do have a high-baseline PDO, and even if the Ducks don’t, there’s certainly no guarantee that they’ll crash against Dallas. Ryan Getzlaf is having a Hart-caliber year, and Corey Perry isn’t far behind. The Ducks have a deeper group of forwards now than last season. Teemu Selanne is magical.
Dartboard: Anaheim.
No. 2 San Jose Sharks vs. No. 3 Los Angeles Kings (Pacific Division)
SN’s pick: Sharks in seven.
Why it can happen: Because it has to happen. These teams have seemed destined to meet for most of the regular season, and thanks (sort of) to the new playoff format, we get to enjoy it in the first round. There is no first-round series that’s going to be more fun than this, and it has to go seven games. IT HAS TO GO SEVEN GAMES. They’re two of the best 5-on-5 teams in the league, and more subjectively, they’re a blast to watch. So, with that in mind, let’s go with San Jose. They’ve scored a half-goal more per game, and are getting the delightful Tomas Hertl back in the lineup. He’d been out for months. Plus, San Jose seems to have the special-teams edge.
Why it may not: While Jonathan Quick’s .915 save percentage is comparable to Antti Niemi’s .913, he’s been much better at even-strength: .929 to .919. Plus, Quick really does seem to raise his game in the playoffs. He could easily be the difference in this series. Marian Gaborik could also help with that goal-scoring stuff.
Dartboard: Los Angeles.
No. 1 Colorado Avalanche vs. No. 4 Minnesota Wild (Central Division)
SN’s pick: Avs in six.
Why it can happen: Colorado is a pretty interesting case study. They had the puck at even-strength less than all but three teams in the regular season. As with the Ducks, a high shooting percentage and fair amount of luck offset that, as did the Vezina-caliber play of Semyon Varlamov. End result: The most points in the Western Conference. Percentages, truth be told, don’t like either of these teams. Colorado has some top-end forward talent to go with Varlamov, a cool story in Patrick Roy, and the good fortune of avoiding Chicago in the first round. Plus, Minnesota’s special teams don’t seem good enough to be a difference-maker. So yeah, sure.
Why it may not: Because the world is a funny place, and Ilya Bryzgalov is Minnesota’s goalie. Minnesota has gone 23-10-7 since Jan. 1.
Dartboard: Minnesota.
No. 2 St. Louis Blues vs. No. 3 Chicago Blackhawks (Central Division)
SN’s pick: Chicago in seven.
Why it can happen: Yes, the champs struggled a little down the stretch, but it’s all relative; look at the Blues. Plus, they didn’t have Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews for most of it. Given that Chicago’s second line was, essentially, Kane and Brandon Saad, that’s a problem. All is well now, though. Chicago is better 5-on-5, and has top-end talent that the Blues (and most other teams) can’t exactly counter. Still, this feels like a coin flip. Or a dart toss.
Why it may not: The Blues lost a lot of games down the stretch, but they didn’t play particularly bad. If Ryan Miller can get it together (.903 save percentage in 19 games with St. Louis), the results could turn on a dime. Getting Vladimir Tarasenko back would be huge. If David Backes’ line can shut down either Toews or Kane, things could get interesting. Top to bottom, they’re as complete a team as you’ll find.
Dartboard: Chicago.
So, that's that. The dartboard picked against SN in every series but Blackhawks-Blues. The important thing to remember, though, is that none of this matters, because predictions are stupid. Enjoy the first round.