Sure, we’re scratching the surface, but the game is evolving. And it’s not just bloggers who are utilizing things like puck possession, zone entries and an understanding of percentages to digest the on-ice product. Many a team has already come out and admitted to using “advanced stats” (which isn’t actually news, really, but is still treated as a big deal because of a weird need to overcompensate that some of us seem to maintain.)
But we’d be foolish to think that it’s all going to happen in one swoop. While Face Punchers are being phased out of the product, and coaches are displaying an appreciation for stricter zone deployment , even the best still have their quirks; or better yet, their kryptonite.
Look at Darryl Sutter, for example. He’s a successful, long-time bench boss that’s seemingly seen it all. Yet despite giving off the appearance of a curmudgeon, he has proven to be open to viewing the game through the newer, but different lens, turning out as something of a patron saint for hockey nerds . There is plenty to admire about the way he has adapted.
Even he has had his issues with one nagging issue, though: the outdated and undeserved appreciation for plodding blueliners for supposed intangibles they bring to the table. Gritty. Physical. Tough. Sandpaper.
All of those are fine enough, as long as they’re not used in place of actual skills. After all, what good is a defenseman who hits devastatingly hard while watching the opposition skate circles around him? Counterintuitive to some is the notion that a player considered “tough to play against” is one that moves the puck, is difficult to keep up with, and does things that keep you on the defensive .
Despite this, too many coaches settles for what they perceive to be a “safer” option — which they’re falsely miscasting as “stay-at-home” rather than “glacial”, and “turnstile” — when better alternatives are available. We’re seeing this exact dilemma play out in Anaheim, where Bruce Boudreau enlisted Mark Fistric on the back-end to start the second-round series against Sutter's Los Angeles Kings, presumably because of the blueliner’s 6-3, 230-pound frame and propensity for throwing big hits. The Ducks managed to score just three times combined in those first two games at home, in large part due to a tamed 1-for-8 power play. Fistric averaged 13:40 of ice time and did nothing noteworthy.
With the series shifting back to Staples Center for Games 3 and 4, Boudreau used the pressure of an impending playoff exit to tinker with his lineup, switching goalies, and inserting Kyle Palmieri and Sami Vatanen. By now you know that the Ducks rallied to win both games, bringing the series back to Anaheim all knotted up at two apiece. And though they have the stellar goaltending of John Gibson to thank for that, the upgrade on the blueline shouldn’t be overlooked.
While Vatanen’s 5-10, 183-pound stature pales in comparison to Fistric, he had also managed to put together 33 points in 62 games between the AHL, NHL, and Winter Olympics. His underlying numbers were turning heads, too.
The Ducks controlled 53.5 percent of all shot attempts at 5-on-5 (Corsi For percentage) when Vatanen was on the ice this season, which was second to none amongst the team’s blueliners. In fact, Hampus Lindholm was the only other one of the bunch to be in the black, at 51.1 percent. It’s an even more impressive figure when you consider that his most common partner was Bryan Allen, a noted possession anchor, whose rate jumped up markedly from 48 percent without Vatanen to 52.8 percent with him . Allen was hardly alone in that regard; look at what Vatanen’s presence did for all of the Ducks (listed in order of most shared ice-time to least):
Beyond that, he was the only Ducks defenseman with a positive penalty differential (+5), with his peers — Allen (-21), Fistric (-10), Lindholm (-9), Lovejoy (-8), Beauchemin (-7) — at the other end of the spectrum.
All of those numbers shouldn't be used in a vacuum as the be-all, end-all; they're supposed to draw our eyes to trends. They’re intended to be used as a kick-starter, prompting further investigation.
Why were Vatanen’s numbers so superior to everyone else’s on his team? Was he doing something in particular that lent itself to this?
Corey Sznajder has been doing yeoman’s work in tracking zone entries and exits for, against all odds, every single game that was played this year. He was kind enough to send me the data he has done so far for the Ducks, encapsulating the first 32 games of their season. While we’ll have to wait a couple of months to have everything we need to fully evaluate, Sznajder’s findings helped shine a light on what was happening.
Vatanen was entering the offensive zone 59.5 percent of the time with control, which was nearly twice as successful as any of the other blueliners on the team (Lindholm was second with 37.3 percent, while most of the others were sub-20 percent). Only Cam Fowler was better at successfully exiting the defensive zone. All sorts of good things tend to happen when you’re able to transition efficiently between zones, and it’s clear that Vatanen excelled as that area of utmost importance.
I went ahead and rewatched Game 3, and quickly found a sequence that helps support Sznajder's data. Pictured below is Vatanen receiving the puck just outside of his defensive zone, with two Kings defenders converging. Instead of panicking and either turning the puck over or icing it, he used his elite skating ability to not only skate out of trouble, but enter the attacking zone and set up a Grade-A scoring chance for teammate Mathieu Perreault:
Vatanen’s exploits against the Kings go past just the 5-on-5 aspect of the game, seeing as he played a noticeable role in the Ducks going 3-5 with the man advantage over the past two games.
The Ducks find themselves facing quite an uphill battle against the Los Angeles Kings, who I still believe to be the better hockey team. But advancing in the playoffs requires a combination of good fortune and ability, and icing your best 18 players goes a long way in improving the likelihood of both. If these playoffs have shown us anything, it’s that sitting back and taking the safe route is a losing proposition .
Sznajder’s goal is to make the work he does publicly available through a database or e-book. He’s accepting donations through GoFundMe if you’re interested .
Dimitri Filipovic is a Sporting News contributor. Follow him on Twitter: @dimfilipovic.
